Demographic Trends
General
Projections of Education Statistics to 2020, (September 2011), National Center for Education Statistics
This report includes projections for state and national enrollment as well as degrees conferred nationally. High school graduates in Minnesota are expected to decline 1% from 2007-08 to 2020-21 (see the section on high school graduates).Minnesota High School Graduate Numbers Peaked Last Year, Insight News (Nov. 2010), Minnesota Office of Higher Education
The number of high school graduates in Minnesota is projected to decline over the next seven years by 5,346 students. Students of color will comprise a larger share of high school graduates in the future with nonwhite graduates projected to grow from 16% of all graduates in 2010 to 23% in 13 years. During the same period, the number of white graduates is projected to decline 12%.Minorities and the Recession-Era College Enrollment Boom (June 2010), Pew Research Center
College freshman enrollment grew by 6% from 2007 to 2008, the largest increase in 40 years. About three-quarters of this growth was due to minority enrollments: Hispanics grew by 15%, blacks by 8%, Asians by 6% and whites by 3%. While minority students are most represented at community colleges and trade schools, the minority freshman enrollment spike occurred at all levels of post-secondary education.Minnesota Population Projections by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2005 to 2035 (Jan. 2009), State Demographic Center
Overall, the white population is projected to grow 9% over 30 years, compared to 112% for the total minority population. By 2035, 48% of Ramsey County residents and 44% of Hennepin County residents are projected to be nonwhite or Latino. In suburban counties, the proportion of residents who are minorities is expected to double.Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity, 1992-2022 (2008), Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education
Minnesota is poised to enter a new period characterized by much more stagnant growth or declines in the production of high school graduates. After reaching a peak in 2007-08 at 60,321, the state will see a sharp decline in the number of public high school graduates each year through 2013-14.... During the same time, the number of high school graduates is forecast to drop by nearly 5,800 (9.6 percent). Subsequently, projections indicate that production will recover, ultimately returning to the 2007-08 peak level by 2020-21. The racial/ethnic compostion of Minnesota's public high school graduating classes will continue to diversify....Projected Population Age 19 and Under, 2030, Atlas of Minnesota Online Edition, Center for Rural Policy and Development
The population aged 19 and under is projected to stay highest in the Twin Cities suburbs. Some rural counties, however, are projected to have a comparatively higher percent of young perople, mostly due to the presence of a college or university or a large minority population.Status and Trends in the Education of Racial and Ethnic Minorities, U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (2007)
"In 2005, Black, Hispanic, and American Indian/Alaska Native students were more likely to be eligible for the free and reduced-price lunch program than were their White and Asian/Pacific Islander peers. Black and Hispanic students were also the most likely to attend high-poverty schools (as gauged by program eligibility), while Asian/Pacific Islander students were the most likely to attend low-poverty schools."Education and Demographics (2006), Institute on Race and Poverty, University of Minnesota
While the K-12 student population in the Twin Cities is changing, many of these changes are concentrated in specific school districts. Suburbs such as Columbia Heights and Richfield have seen at least a 20 percent increase in poverty enrollment from 2001 to 2005. The ethnic and racial composition of Twin Cities schools is also detailed.National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (NCHEMS) (2007)
Data and information regarding the preparation for college, the transition from high school to college, college participation and completion, the transition from college to work, the benefits of higher education, and higher education finance.Workforce Implications
But...what about tomorrow? PDF 473 KB, presented by Tom Stinson and Tom Gillaspy at September 8, 2009 Minnesota Leadership Summit
The presentation focuses on the economy, demographic changes (e.g. aging of Minnesota population) and the changing productivity of Minnesota’s workforce. See slide 27, Education Is The Key To Productivity.The Female Factor: Women Workers in the Twin Cities (October 2009), Department of Employment and Economic Development
A recent analysis of Minnesota workers points to a possible gender advantage in this recession. Women in Minnesota may be faring better, in part, because of their occupational selection. Employment in education and health care services, which traditionally employ larger numbers of women, continued to grow over the past few years while manufacturing and construction, industries that are overwhelmingly male dominated, lost jobs.The Age Factor: Older Workers in the Twin Cities (April 2009), Department of Employment and Economic Development
Between the first quarters of 2000 and 2008 the number of workers 55 and older in the Twin Cities grew by 83,200, an increase from 11% of the regional workforce in first quarter 2000 to 15.9% in first quarter 2008. Older workers outnumbered workers under the age of 25, a group that accounted for 14.5 percent of the Twin Cities workforce in 2008.Projections of High School Graduates: Implications for Baccalaureate Degree Production and Workforce Growth PDF 159 KB, (2004), Minnesota Private College Research Foundation
High school graduate “projections suggest that if present trends continue, by 2010 Minnesota will not be producing enough college graduates to meet to the total workforce demands of replacing retirees and filling new positions. And by 2015, the state will not be producing enough graduates even to replace the retirees, with no room for economic growth whatsoever.”
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